Good Afternoon,

A strong tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure is moving westward across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Reports from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined circulation, but it nevertheless is producing tropical-storm-force winds in squalls over the northernmost Leeward Islands and adjacent waters. Although upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for additional development, this system could become a tropical storm or tropical depression at any time during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development by the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development, squalls to tropical storm force can be expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon. Strong winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties regarding this system's development and future track, it is too early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
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2016 Coastal Strategy Plan available on the Parish Website

The St. Bernard Parish Government Office of Coastal Affairs has added the 2016 Coastal Strategy Document to the parish’s website. The document has been approved by the Coastal Zone Management Advisory Committee and the St. Bernard Parish Council. To view the document, click on the link below. For more information on the Coastal Department visit www.sbpg.net and choose Coastal under the Department links.

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Weather Update

The National Weather Serive is monitoring two systems and/or disturbances. Of these, Invest 99 has the highest probability of impacting the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Gaston, currently located in the central Atlantic Ocean and moving west-northwest, has strengthened overnight. The system is expected to become a hurricane today as it continues on a west-northwest track in the mid-Atlantic. This system does not present a threat to New Orleans.

Invest 99, currently located over the Leeward Islands, is showing signs of organization but still lacks a well-defined circulation. Models should continue to improve as data from two Hurricane Hunters aircraft missions scheduled today is processed. This system may present a threat to New Orleans.

• Track (attached): Model consensus is in fairly good agreement that this system will move across the southern Florida coast and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. After this, there is uncertainty in the track. Of the two main models, the GFS indicates a low level disturbance kept weak by land interactions in the Caribbean and the EURO indicates a hurricane-strength storm making a second landfall in the central Gulf coast.
• Intensity: Intensity models remain divergent but in general show a strengthening trend starting tomorrow and possible category 1 hurricane strength in 4-5 days.
• Impact: Although models are currently unreliable, there is a probability of this storm impacting SE and/or SW Louisiana.
• Timing (H-Hour): H-130 (monitoring – avenue of approach 2)

Stay tuned to local broadcasts for updates or visit www.weather.gov.
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